2023-02-07
吹脹
今天（7日）文章本應分析上周五（3日）的美1月就業數據，但要等明天（8日）才談，先講下「吹脹」，就是那個氣球。如果2月份普京不出重兵打烏克蘭，則這個「氣球」應是今年2月的最重大「軍事行動」。
有幾重大？看看美傳媒怎報道(可能是老作)拜登和五角大樓對這個氣球的處置討論。
「I ordered the Pentagon to shoot it down on Wednesday as soon as possible，」 said President Biden, caving to the cries of the crowd.
「They decided - without doing damage to anyone on the ground - they decided that the best time to do that was when it got over water,」 added America's Commander-in-Chief, acknowledging that of the many terrific uses for F-22s, engineering soft landings is not one.
「Within the 12-mile limit, they successfully took it down, and I want to compliment our aviators who did it.」
擊落氣球是炮彈射蚊鬚
大致上是拜登惱火，這個三軍總司令下令當氣球飄到海面上，美國12浬領海範圍之內，用F22戰機，把氣球射下來。
認真炮彈射蚊鬚，不是瞄準難，而是卡通！！！
這個氣球的飄移路線見圖一，當在蒙大拿州被民眾發現報告美政府後，這氣球仍飄呀飄，由美國西岸飄到美國東岸，其間，美戰機F22曾多次升空監察，但都沒有採取到任何毁滅氣球行動，只是望、望、望，一直到這氣球飄出美國東部海岸（圖二），當氣球下降到18000米，在北加羅納州對出海面被美F22戰機擊落，並有美國軍方的偵察機在氣球殘骸的海面上跟蹤，直到被海軍打撈起為止（圖三）。
為免妨礙打撈，美國航空局發出禁止在該區的飛行禁令。
The FAA has issued a ground stop/TFR-air space closure for parts of North Carolina and South Carolina. All operations at Charleston, Myrtle Beach, and Wilmington are paused for national security initiatives. This is in effect until 2:45 ET.
Impacting condition: other / security
Comments: FDC Notam 3/1028 and 3/1029 is in effect due to national.
Security initiatives. All aircraft are prohibited from operation.
Within the affected area of this TFR from SFC-FL600 from 1745z to 1945z.
這個禁令涉及關閉了三個機場及鄰近空域，不可謂不大件事。
這個使白宮和美軍方頭大的氣球是怎樣的呢？大概是如（圖四）。這個被F22擊落的氣球的那一刻（圖五），是個歷史性時刻，這是F22服役以來的第一次實際軍事行動，此相可能入選2023年十大紀事之一。
美國防部部長發表了新聞公告，嘩！是國防部長發呀，不是由新聞官發，可見美國防部對此氣球之重視，公告如下:
The USS Carter Hall(LSD-50)(along with numerous skipper sized surface craft, I assume)is arriving in the splashdown zone for balloon recovery.
This afternoon, at the direction of President Biden, US fighter aircraft assigned to U.S. Northern Command successfully brought down the high-altitude surveillance balloon launched by and belonging to the People's Republic of China(PRC) over the water off the coast of South Carolina in US airspace. The balloon, which was being used by the PRC in an attempt to surveil strategic sites in the continental United States, was brought down above US territorial waters.
On Wednesday, President Biden gave his authorization to take down the surveillance balloon as soon as the mission could be accomplished without undue risk to American lives under the balloon's path.
After careful analysis, US military commanders had determined downing the balloon while over land posed an undue risk to people across a wide area due to the size and altitude of the balloon and its surveillance payload. In accordance with the President's direction, the Department of Defense developed options to take down the balloon safely over our territorial waters, while closely monitoring its path and intelligence collection activities. This action was taken in coordination, and with the full support, of the Canadian government. And we thank Canada for its contribution to tracking and analysis of the balloon through NORAD as it transited North America. Today's deliberate and lawful action demonstrates that President Biden and his national security team will always put the safety and security of the American people first while responding effectively to the PRC's unacceptable violation of our sovereignty.
氣球殘骸找到了，會有甚麼的軍事、偵察機密及儀器在其中，如果有，則白宮和美國防部如斯大陣仗，是必然的:但如果乜機密都無，則白宮和美國防部是否有被吹脹之感？
我們不必細究，等美國政府發公布好了。如果這氣球真有軍事偵察任務或軍用儀器，美政府應在兩三日內便召開全球新聞發布會，把證據抖出來，找中國麻煩，如果美官方聲啞，大家就知道美政府是被吹脹了。
為甚麼是被吹脹？無實質證據就只好拿陰謀論來說事，就是中國是拿這個氣球來試找出條日後「空炸」美國的非戰機、非衛星、非導彈途徑。不過他們或要附加說明，為甚麼上帝不再Save美國，而是硬要將中國氣球吹到美國本土來，如果上帝不回應，白宮及美國防部就只有被吹脹份兒。
目前全球上空有幾十個這樣的氣球在飄，不過不全是中國的。加拿大軍方就公布，有第二個中國氣球會飄來加拿大，路徑可能如圖六。而美國防部又謂留意到有另個氣球在南美洲漂浮，正是氣球何其多，想打？你打得幾多個？吹脹！！！
（投資涉風險，每投資者承受風險程度不一，務必要獨立思考。筆者會因應市況而買賣。）
《經濟通》所刊的署名及／或不署名文章，相關內容屬作者個人意見，並不代表《經濟通》立場，《經濟通》所扮演的角色是提供一個自由言論平台。
樂本健【年度感謝祭】維柏健及natural Factors全線2件7折► 了解詳情
