[ET Net News Agency, 10 March 2026] Following a surge in global oil prices triggered by
attacks on Iranian oil facilities, US President Trump has declared that strikes against
Iranian military targets are now "essentially complete" and expects the conflict to end
quickly. US equities put in a "miracle" overnight performance, selling off before staging
a strong recovery. Hong Kong stocks extended the rebound, with the Hang Seng Index opening
over 300 points higher and continuing its advance to reclaim the 25,800 level by midday,
closing the session at 25,804, up 396 points or 1.6%, with main board turnover exceeding
HKD 172 billion.

"Jaseper Tsang: Trump may have underestimated oil price spike"

US President Trump said that the war with Iran may soon be over. The Hang Seng opened
several hundred points higher in line with global markets. Jaseper Tsang, Vice-Chairman of
the Hong Kong Institute of Financial Analysts and Professional Commentators Limited, told
ET Net News Agency that the rapid surge in international oil prices has raised concerns
about higher global inflation, triggering a sharp sell-off in equity markets, something
Trump neither wanted nor expected. Falling equity markets affect the wealth effect, and
surging oil prices feed into higher inflation, posing further headwinds for the US economy
and potentially impacting the US midterm elections. Therefore, Trump's call for a swift
end to the conflict is understandable. Tsang pointed out that global financial markets
remain highly alert to whether the Strait of Hormuz stays open for oil shipments. Even if
the US is determined to end hostilities quickly, it remains to be seen whether Iran will
cooperate and cease attacks on tankers passing through the strait. Ultimately, the Middle
East situation remains the biggest uncertainty weighing on global markets.
As for Hong Kong stocks, even though yesterday's (the 9th) closing losses narrowed
sharply and today's market rebounded in line with global peers, Tsang noted that, aside
from the Middle East conflict, structural issues still trouble Hong Kong equities. Leading
tech stocks have been weak, with concerns that core earnings face growing competition,
even gaming businesses could come under challenge from AI. As such, it is difficult to
expect tech stocks to drive a sustained rally, and Hong Kong stocks are likely to remain a
market for selective stock picking rather than broad-based gains. Even if the HSI tracks
global markets and rallies towards the 10-day moving average (around 25,900), resistance
is likely near 26,000. If external conditions deteriorate, the HSI could well retest the
250-day moving average (approximately 25,000), and in a worst-case scenario, drop as low
as 24,500.

"EV battery demand slows, CATL's outlook hinges on AI-driven energy storage"

CATL (03750) reported net profit of around RMB 72.2 billion for last year, up 42.28%,
with earnings per share of RMB 16.14 and a final dividend of RMB 6.957 per share. Revenue
for 2023 totalled RMB 423.7 billion, up 17%, with domestic revenue at RMB 294.0 billion
(+16.84%) and overseas revenue at RMB 129.6 billion (+17.5%). Domestic and overseas gross
margins were 24% and 31.44%, respectively.
In the fourth quarter alone, CATL posted revenue of RMB 140.63 billion, beating market
expectations, with net profit of RMB 23.167 billion, also above consensus. Chairman Robin
Zeng highlighted that the company has distributed 50% of its net profit as cash dividends
for three consecutive years; after the dividend for 2025, cumulative payouts will approach
RMB 100 billion.
Tsang commented that CATL's results exceeded market expectations, hence the strong rally
in its share price today. However, with domestic electric vehicle (EV) sales slowing in
the first two months of the year, market sentiment for the rest of 2024 remains cautious
or even pessimistic. Attention has shifted to the export market, but EV sales slowdowns
are not limited to China, other countries and Tesla have also suffered declining
deliveries, so overseas recovery cannot be relied upon. However, rapid advancements in AI
are driving strong demand for AI-driven energy storage batteries. Thus, CATL's main growth
driver in the next few years is expected to be the expansion of AI energy storage
solutions.
As for CATL's main competitor, BYD (01211), it unveiled its second-generation "blade
battery" and flash charging technology last week, claiming it to be the world's most
advanced power battery and boasting record-fast production charging speeds. Tsang remarked
that given the visible slowdown, and even contraction, in EV sales, such technological
upgrades are unlikely to reverse the overall trend. Accordingly, the impact on CATL is
expected to be minimal.
Tsang further noted that while a slower EV market is a headwind for CATL's share price,
surging demand for AI energy storage batteries could become a major catalyst, and expects
the company to sustain double-digit earnings growth over the next three years (2026-2028).
He forecasts CATL's 2026 forward P/E at around 28 times, with a one-year target price of
RMB 620, offering more than 10% upside from current levels.